Triad -- This winter has been mild and dry for the most part. It is late February and we haven't had a measurable snowfall yet. Sunday will finally bring rain and possibly winter weather to parts of the area.
Today a storm system has been brewing over the deep south. Parts of southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia have had severe weather at times during the day. Storms affected some Mardi Gras festivities earlier in the day.
The same system will move northeast and eventually off the NC coast. It will begin to bring rain just after midnight tonight and that will last through the day on Sunday.
Temperatures will be a big player in this game. During the day on Saturday, highs were in the low 60s. The ground temperatures are also fairly warm and in the upper 40s. Tonight the temperatures will fall, but only to the upper 30s or low 40s, so the threat for frozen precipitation isn't for tonight.
During the day on Sunday, the warmest part of the day will be the first half. We will fall to the mid 30s around lunch time and then to the low 30s by evening. Soil temps will also fall but the ground will hardly be frozen by the time the snow begins to fall.
Counties bordering the NC/VA border should see the frozen precip first. It could even be late morning when a winter mix sets up. For the rest of the Triad, it will be later in the afternoon before anything frozen starts to mix in. By evening, we could all see a change-over to snow which could last until after midnight.
As for accumulation totals, a lot will depend on the ground temperatures. If the snow comes down lightly even if it's for a long period of time, not much will stick. If we get a heavy burst coming down hard and fast, that could quickly drop the soil temperatures and allow more to stick. As of now, it looks like areas north of the Virginia border could get 2-4". Most of the Triad will be looking at about an inch- mostly on elevated and grassy areas.
We will continue to watch as conditions change over the next 24 hours.
WFMY News 2